As figure 7.3 shows, in any kind of setting—a rural area, small town, suburb, or large city—some churches find ways to grow. Generally, growth happens in nonmetropolitan areas. Few growing churches (7%) are located in large metro areas. Growth is more common among churches in suburban areas—where one in three growing churches is located—compared to stable churches (5% in suburbs) or declining churches (18% in suburbs).
We found more stable and declining churches in rural areas and towns or small cities. This results from the larger population declines in rural areas and small towns than in suburbs and larger cities. As a result, churches in rural areas and towns struggle to attract enough new worshipers to replace the numbers of worshipers who move away or die.
What percentage of churches in rural areas are growing? Figure 7.3 does not answer this question; it shows that one in four growing churches is located in a rural area. However, around 17% of churches in rural areas, 17% of town/small city churches, 39% of suburban churches and only 11% of large metropolitan area churches reported growth.
Who Are the Pastors in Growing Churches?
Our research makes a unique contribution to unraveling growth dynamics because we add information about the pastors serving in growing, stable, and declining congregations. What do we know about the types of pastors and leadership patterns associated with growth?
Not young or old. A common assumption is that younger pastors, who often have the most energy and ambition, serve in growing churches. They either grow the church themselves or are called to a congregation that is already growing and wishes to continue that momentum. As Figure 7.4 shows, however, pastors between 51 and 60 years old are more common among growing churches than pastors in other age groups. More pastors older than 60 serve in declining churches. The majority of pastors in declining churches are over age 50.
Only 12% of pastors are 40 years old or younger. What percentage of that group serves in growing churches? One in four (26%) leads a growing church. Fewer pastors in the 41-to-50 age group (18%) lead a growing church. Almost one in three pastors between 51 and 60 years of age (30%) serves a growing church. Finally, only 17% of pastors older than 60 lead a growing church.
First-career and lifelong pastors. Second-career pastors—those who worked in another occupation before entering ministry—represent 40% of pastoral leaders. These second-career leaders are overrepresented in declining churches (see Figure 7.5). This does not indicate that these pastors caused numerical decline. Rather, growing congregations may prefer first-career pastors and call them as leaders, if all else is equal. Growing and stable churches have more first-career pastors (64%) compared to second-career pastors (only 36%).
